Climate change is likely to lead not only to an increase in temperature, but to changes in patterns of rainfall, with wetter conditions in the west and drier ones in the east. The last few decades have seen a rapid increase in the number of tree pests and pathogens, and climate change is likely to lead to changes in both their distribution and impact. Phytophthora ramorum is a fungus-like pathogen that affects a wide range of plant species, although in the UK the greatest impacts have been on larch.
Statutory Plant Health Notices (SPHNs) are issued in response to the occurrence of a range of plant diseases. The earliest date for which an SPHN is issued for a particular area can be used as a proxy for the date of arrival of the disease, especially when its spread has been closely monitored, as is the case for P. ramorum. The map indicates the first year in which SPHNs have been issued for each 10km square in Scotland, between 2010 and 2017.
This indicator is prepared by Forestry Commission Scotland
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